Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 81556.712121 86108.264477 90660.013060 95550.270425 100652.270660 105814.914627 111430.504757
2025-03-09 74586.669863 81595.727018 88802.704629 96756.889239 105279.244236 114126.082597 123993.674024
2025-03-16 68636.963028 77242.452582 86287.996770 96484.099300 107636.016364 119441.438025 132862.051891
2025-03-23 65191.596678 75103.342558 85712.570061 97878.748882 111409.070875 125958.909596 142751.811492
2025-03-30 62094.147196 73027.282670 84917.552648 98758.691537 114375.283761 131396.537803 151297.324906
2025-04-06 59014.731278 70730.855308 83659.096671 98914.363670 116351.351759 135587.423703 158337.754591
2025-04-13 56197.443055 68548.160744 82361.138605 98865.389715 117955.247769 139247.049671 164691.945400
2025-04-20 54570.916422 67626.301705 82404.752323 100260.774772 121133.076617 144639.725568 172989.676914
2025-04-27 53089.866587 66778.938191 82451.354872 101585.929298 124172.985538 149839.995462 181057.445741
2025-05-04 51381.419297 65570.368998 81994.000241 102247.744480 126381.175602 154040.854154 187952.159302
2025-05-11 49461.867322 64020.380971 81053.065282 102263.618548 127767.611138 157239.969530 193652.419085
2025-05-18 47939.646782 62885.787753 80549.255869 102747.423253 129666.321737 161013.249446 200018.741061
2025-05-25 46287.574364 61550.316585 79773.424314 102887.389514 131156.947368 164330.614527 205903.958089
2025-06-01 45351.525100 61068.375491 80011.409819 104242.996895 134111.397658 169407.353993 213927.011375
2025-06-08 43673.796957 59590.710861 78965.272304 103968.933952 135039.697257 172023.482641 218984.145319
2025-06-15 42946.109618 59288.085845 79354.645985 105453.930287 138117.690357 177244.926328 227217.173585
2025-06-22 42008.596080 58677.680949 79325.319349 106389.371075 140500.280967 181617.887272 234434.206631
2025-06-29 40773.110475 57637.021632 78712.320190 106554.877524 141897.903839 184770.415617 240159.028813
2025-07-06 39507.144056 56514.087806 77955.824879 106502.889841 142994.843673 187535.601494 245404.233839
2025-07-13 38977.955128 56343.908013 78408.380457 107984.951311 146025.122857 192706.549711 253653.956598
2025-07-20 38445.902801 56148.310611 78811.261324 109392.198911 148959.026822 197768.439260 261796.662557
2025-07-27 37646.208459 55565.243687 78684.909427 110094.935308 150982.531126 201690.777877 268531.060023
2025-08-03 36602.970561 54619.598146 78052.689457 110111.790326 152105.391874 204469.768558 273832.892182